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What to Expect from Black Friday: Trends and Forecasts

Digital Marketing
November 2, 2022
9 min

It’s hard to overestimate the importance of Black Friday for retailers. For instance, the online spending of US customers reached $10.4 billion in 2021.

At the same time, 68% of UK retailers participate in Black Friday, the amount of which is constantly growing.  Two previous Black Fridays took place during the global Coronavirus pandemic. As time goes by, the business environment also changes. So, what should eCommerce expect from Black Friday in 2022? Based on profound data research and the remarkable 18-year experience of the Promodo team, we have collected trends, forecasts, and recommendations that would help you to have a successful Black Friday campaign in 2022.

2022 Black Friday Trends

The new year brings new Black Friday trends! We believe that trending Black Friday awareness allows you to adapt your promotional campaign before the X-Day properly to gain as many benefits as possible.

Not only Friday

There’s a myth that Black Friday is the busiest shopping day of the holiday season. However, we have some surprising statistics for you! The predicted sales on Cyber Monday exceed the Black Friday sales remarkably. For instance, according to the projections made by eMarketer, the eCommerce Cyber Monday sales criterion is to reach $11.84 billion in 2022 compared to $9.81 billion in sales on Friday. Hence, do not neglect the importance of all five days in the holiday season, and plan your campaign in advance.

Black Friday 2022 Statistics
Source: eMarketer

Holiday season sales keep growing no matter what

According to the National Retail Federation, 2021 holiday sales grew by 14.1% reaching $886.7 billion. Even though in considerable challenges such as COVID-19, inflation, and supply chain issues, the last-year-result has become a new record. That’s why we also expect growth in 2022.

October is a new November

One of the major Black Friday trends that retailers should consider is a considerable prolongation of the campaign. The experience of 2021 made it clear that the increase in the number of customers starts as early as October, reaching a peak by Black Friday. This makes the beginning of the fourth quarter a good time to attract new customers and work with the existing contact base. In the US, 56% of customers do not plan to wait for X-Day but start shopping before the end of October.


Another Black Friday retail trend is the growing amount of visitors of brick-and-mortar stores. According to the JLL Retail Holiday Survey 2022, approximately two-thirds (63%) plan to shop in person this year, compared to 58% the previous season. During this period in 2021, 66.5 million Americans visited offline stores, which also increased compared to 2020, when people were restricted from online shopping because of the pandemic.

Best Shopping Channels for Black Friday

In spite of the growing trend of offline shopping, let’s view whether retailers should focus only on in-store Black Friday campaigns in 2022. According to Statista Research Department, only 6% of global customers prefer only visiting brick-and-mortar stores during the Cyber Five Holiday Season. On the contrary, 38% of consumers buy goods online only. The largest share of clients, namely 56%, use the combination of online and in-store shopping on Black Friday. Hence, it is better to have discounts in both shopping channels to satisfy all customer segments.

Black Friday 2022 Statistics

Shopping Channels for Black Friday/Cyber Weekend purchases in selected countries in 2021

Source: Statista

PPC Tricks to Win Black Friday 2022

PPC is one of the most effective tools for retailers during the holiday season. However, you need to know several PPC peculiarities in order to develop the best Black Friday ads. Usually, the traffic increase takes place 2 weeks before X-Day, although the conversion rate is rather low in this period because people search for products they need, and monitor prices, but do not always buy. The peak of traffic and conversions on Monday and growth through Friday, including Cyber Monday.

“Core categories are likely to remain the same in 2022, namely smartphones, laptops, refrigerators, and washing machines. However, televisions will likely not be in high demand, as usual”.
          Yulia Chub, Head of PPC Department, Promodo

In 2021, the budget for Black Friday search ads was about 70% higher than the previous one. In 2022, it is better to raise budgets gradually in order to distribute and leave a reserve for Black Friday properly. In addition, we recommend permanently monitoring and analyzing how different events affect sales and demand in the relevant categories. Based on the received data, strengthen these categories and, if the assortment allows, apply paid traffic to them.

Black Friday 2022 Statistics

How to Plan the Black Friday SEO Campaign in 2022

Firstly, it is important to say that Black Friday SEO campaigns are important for all countries during holiday season. Even though the largest share of Black Friday searches come from the United States, which is the country of origin of the day, Germany, Brazil, the UK, Spain, Canada, and France also possess a remarkable share of searches. Hence, investing in SEO campaigns is worse, as their effectiveness grows from year to year.

Black Friday 2022 Statistics

Share of Black Friday Searches Coming from Selected Countries as of September 2021

Source: Statista

At the same time, it is critical to consider the character of searches. For instance, the Head of the SEM Department Maksym Kopilchenko states: “In Europe and the United States, the online search is made for the most favorable offers for Black Friday and slightly less for goods from brand stores”. That is why you should study your customers’ journey properly before implementing your Black Friday SEO strategy.

“Regarding budgets, this year eCommerce budgets vary from -10% to +50% compared to 2021”.
          Maksym Kopilchenko, Head of SEM Department, Promodo.

Thus, the holiday season is a busy time for retailers, both online and offline, which creates dozens of opportunities. However, each year, customers’ preferences and business conditions change. That is why we recommend keeping a track of current trends and take the maximum from Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Cyber Sunday, and Cyber Money in 2022. In case you are doubting how to use all the tools in practice, it’s better to delegate it to a professional digital marketing agency.

Written by
Maria Kashina

Content Marketing Manager at Promodo

November 2, 2022
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